Masa Depan Energi

Net-Zero Electricity

Techno-economic implications of transition scenarios

Transforming the electricity sector is a crucial element of Indonesia's vision to achieve Net-Zero emissions in 2060, as communicated in the country's Long-Term Strategy on Low Carbon and Climate Resilience. This study analyzes detailed implications of various Net-Zero electricity scenarios such as emissions reduction potential, volume of investment, grid requirement and technology options. The results provide information on policy options and crucial decisions making needs that are decisive to ensuring the achievement of Net-Zero targets.

Key insights

Formulating equitable and effective Net-Zero targets

Net-Zero emissions can be achieved from implementing low-carbon and carbon dioxide removal technologies.

Globally, Net-Negative emissions are further required to achieve Paris Agreement goals.

Formulating Indonesia's Net-Zero target requires equitable burden-sharing of global climate change mitigation requirement.

Achieving Net-Zero emissions in 2050 would impy similar burden-sharing responsibility between Indonesia and developed economies.

Net-Zero transition needs to be synergetic with climate change adaptation measures

Cost implications of transition towards Net-Zero electricity

In terms of cost, regional convergence of electricity consumption is synergetic with the transition to Net-Zero.

Net-Zero electricity scenarios increases investment needs between 68-98%.

However, Net-Zero electricity scenarios "only" increase total system costs of the electricity sector by 5-26%.

In the long run, the increase in investment costs due to the Net-Zero target is compensated by the decrease in fuel costs.

The "modest" increase in total system costs of Net-Zero electricity scenarios is also influenced by the projected decrease in solar PV generation costs.

If the projected decrease in solar panel generation prices is not met, the overall cost of the power sector rises between 29-44%.

Optimum configuration of power generation technologies

Solar dominates the energy mix in Net-Zero electricity scenarios, increasing to 25-50% (2050) and 47-65% (2060).

Due to the dominance of solar panel generation, the need for additional generation capacity increases between 18-140%.

If the projected decrease in solar panel generation prices is not met, the roles of hydropower, geothermal and bioenergy increase.

Achieving Net-Zero in 2050 requires CO₂ removal using BECCS plants with total capacity of up to 9.6 GW in 2050 and 2060.

Net-Zero transition creates momentum to build the national solar PV industry.

Complexity accross electricty supply chain

Net-Zero electricity scenarios require 2862-37.142 km additional transmission lines outside of Java-Bali in 2100.

Achieving Net-Zero in 2050 for the electricity sector requires biomass supply of up to 72 million m³ in 2050.

Solar PV generation under the Net-Zero electricity scenarios require up to 1.5-2.0 million ha of area coverage by 2100.